A flagship in the suite of reports CoreLogic produces is their annual ‘Best of the Best’ series - ‘BoB’. It takes a deep dive into the property markets & highlights the top 10 best performing regions (house & unit) nationally & across each of the capital cities.
2019 will go down as the year when new records were set. For 2020, we’re likely to see markets in recovery mode as housing prices catch up and then overtake their previous record highs, however, we expect the rapid rate of capital gains seen over the second half of 2019 to lose steam as stock levels rise and affordability deteriorates.
The housing market moved through the largest and longest correction on record, followed by a fast-paced rebound in values through the second half of the year. Housing turnover fell to record lows in 2019, as did new advertised stock levels. Interest rates reduced to levels previously unseen, while the concentration of investors in the market also plumbed new depths.
2020's pace of growth is expected to remain positive but may be slow due to:
• Worsening housing affordability
• Higher listing numbers (more choice and less urgency)
• Weakening labour market
• Some smaller capital cities could see improvement in conditions due to - rising population fuelling housing demand, relatively healthy housing affordability although strength of labour markets remains a wild card in these markets.
• As housing values & housing demand rise we should start to see building approvals trend higher, translating to a turnaround in the weak residential construction figures late in the year.
• Lower interest rates should support housing demand, however, lower rates could possibly dent confidence as households spooked by concerns around the economy and household finances.
• First home buyer numbers likely to fade as affordability impacts participation in the market, but investors are likely to be more active, chasing capital gains and opportunities for positive cash flow considering the inverted spread between mortgage rates and rental yields
In closing, Tim Lawless said: “2019 will see the housing market end the year in positive annual growth territory, with capital city home values likely to be around 2.2% higher over the full calendar year; a remarkable difference from 2018 when capital city housing values were down 6.1%
Check out CoreLogic's complete findings by downloading the Best of the best 2019 report here.